Resolution criteria

This market will resolve based on the number of rounds required to determine a winner in the 2025 New York City Democratic mayoral primary using ranked-choice voting (RCV). The options are:

• 2 or Fewer: Resolves "Yes" if a candidate secures a majority (over 50%) of first-choice votes, eliminating the need for additional rounds, or if only one elimination round is needed.

• 3: Resolves "Yes" if exactly three rounds are needed to declare a winner.

• 4 or More: Resolves "Yes" if four or more rounds are required to determine the winner.

Official results from the New York City Board of Elections will serve as the source for resolution. (vote.nyc)

Background

In New York City's RCV system, voters rank up to five candidates in order of preference. If no candidate receives more than 50% of first-choice votes, the candidate with the fewest votes is eliminated, and votes are redistributed to the next choice on those ballots. This process repeats in successive rounds until a candidate achieves a majority. (vote.nyc)

Considerations

The number of RCV rounds depends on the distribution of first-choice votes and the total number of candidates. A larger field or a more evenly distributed vote can lead to more rounds before a majority is reached. For instance, in the 2021 Democratic mayoral primary, eight rounds were necessary to declare a winner. (en.wikipedia.org)