Will a cyber attack by a top 10 GDP nation exposing mass private civilian data occur before 2028?
Will a cyber attack by a top 10 GDP nation exposing mass private civilian data occur before 2028?
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22
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62%
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Top 10 GDP at time of attack. Must be by a state or entity with noteworthy international suspicion to be under direction of that state.
Mass = affects greater than 10,000,000 people
Civilian = non military personnel of another nation.
Private Data = passwords, private pictures, account numbers, some other form of data that is somewhat damaging (think embarrassing as lower bound). May include some false information purposefully or accidentally, but must be “mostly” reliable.
Exposing = making publicly accessible for the purpose of causing harm/chaos/unrest. Don’t read too much into this, basically suspected malicious intent.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
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