Do you think your time is well-spent on Manifold?

Never closes

yeah

kinda, but leaning toward yeah

kinda, but leaning toward no

feel free to share your thoughts about your experience on this platform in the comments

i'm in a very thoughtful mood and i'm considering the platforms i use and my relationships to them

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3mo

It's good, but if I spent less time manifolding, I could capture 80% of the benefits in only 20% of the time.

10mo

when I take the time to research a topic before placing a bet — then contribute to comment /discussions, yes, well-spent

I need to find a better way to diversify the topics appearing in my feed as I am losing interest in the topics appearing (some of which i’ve learned “never” to bet on 🙃 )

12mo

not anymore!

At least whenever I waste time on this app I get to convince myself that it's helping me be more knowledgeable and accurate about world events. But yeah I probably do spend more time on here than I should.

Yes, I think so. If I'm having a bad time on Manifold, I take it as a sign to step away from the site.

@evergreenemily i employ that same kind of thinking for any online platform i use and it rocks—though i feel like there’s a lot of intriguing stuff to poke through when questioning the related feelings

What is this?

What is Manifold?

Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.

Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.

Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.

Are our predictions accurate?

Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.

In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.

How do I win cash prizes?

Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.

All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.

Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.

Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00
→ $1.00, minus a 5% fee.

Learn more.

What is this?

What is Manifold?

Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.

Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.

Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.

Are our predictions accurate?

Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.

How do I win cash prizes?

Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.

All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.

Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.

Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00
→ $1.00, minus a 5% fee.

Learn more.

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