Resolves to the next individual to at any point be both be simultaniously the president of the United States and affiliated with the Democratic party by the year 2050.
Unnessisarly specific market rules:
This market exludes any individuals who have already met this requirement. E.g. this market will not resolve on January 20th 2024 if Biden were to win re-election (and in the very unlikely event that Jimmy Carter were to somehow be nominated, re-elected, and survive long enough to be inagurated on January 20th this market would also not resolve).
However it's technically possible for this market to resolve to other past presidents like Trump or George H. W. Bush if for some strange reason either of the two were to change their party affilation as neither have already met the above requirement (as would any individual elected as a Republican who were to change their party affiliation to Democrat midterm).
It's also worth noting that this market does not have to resolve to an elected president of the United states (e.g. this market would resolve to Kamala Harris if she were to assume presidency before the next election).
Finnally, I said "the" Democratic party but infact there are many "Democratic" parties. If any president were to for some reason be affiliated with the Democratic party of Italy, Luxembourg, South Africa, Serbia, or Hong Kong (or the "Democratic party" of any other country, or potentially any party in the US if they were to change their name) at any point during their term they would also resolve this market.
If nobody meets this requirement by 2050 this market will resolve to "Armageddon" regardless of if it is actually the end of the world.
1,000
3.00My analysis:
In general, each party has a ~50% chance of winning any given election, so let's say that (absent cross-party transitions caused by assassinations) there's a 50% this resolves 2028, 25% 2032, 12% 2036, etc.
The US went through 17 elections and three parties before reaching the current party system, which has run for 43 elections since. I'd take a guess that each election has a ~1-2% chance of switching things up so that a given party gets replaced by something else entirely. If the Democratic Party ceases to exist before they next win a presidential election, this will presumably resolve "Armageddon" per the description. I'd give it a ~2% chance of happening in this manner.
In case of actual Armageddon, this market is unlikely to resolve, so I'd recommend ignoring those possibilities.
The US has a presidential assassination once every 15 elections or so (~7% each). While none so far have resulted in the simultaneous deaths of the President and Vice President, there presumably is some chance of that happening. If that happens when the Democrats have control of the House, then their leader (currently Hakeem Jeffries) would become President. (Note that they do not currently have control of the House, but that may change in 2026, and may be the case during future successive Republican presidencies.) My odds: ~1%.
There are numerous 2028 election markets (1, 2, 3) and there are some notable gaps between them and this. (For example, Kelly and Shor here are very large multiples of what they are there. Unless there's particular reason to think that 2032+ elections are much, much more likely to elect them post-2028-Republican-victory, those are arbitrage opportunities.)
Oh and there are probably also some more normal outcomes that could happen, but those aren't as interesting to me. 😛
How is David Shor listed twice when it is the exact same spelling? Anyways if an option is listed twice I will choose whichever listing of that option has the highest % is the oldest
@parkerfriedland This is a bad idea because it incentivises bidding up the one with lower % as you'll get a larger return
@JoshuaWilkes OK what do you suggest i do? When I resolve and a duplicate (ex. Shor) wins I could resolve both to a % and divide that % proportionally based on the capital invested into each? Should I do that? The problem with doing it this way would be that Shor would appear to have a lower probability then he actually has as there is a second listing of him
@parkerfriedland if it were a new market you would be able to edit one of the answers to show it won't be counted. Can you do that here?
@burkebot OK but counterpoint Biden is already disqualified from the rules of the market (as this is a market for the next democratic president) so it wouldn't make sense for him to be listed here either. And I don't have any control over who people add as options to the question even if an option literally can't win
Created a clone of this market for the Republican side:
https://manifold.markets/parkerfriedland/who-will-be-the-next-republican-pre
