Will net electoral college bias continue to favor the GOP in 2024?
Basic
8
Ṁ852Jan 1
96%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
As measured by the difference in margin between the tipping point state and country overall.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000
and3.00
Sort by:
Popular vote at +1.43% Republican vs tipping point state (PA) vote at +1.71%, for an overall bias of 0.28%>0, according to https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/11/05/us/elections/results-president.html
Related questions
Related questions
Will Republicans win the popular vote in the 2024 US House Elections?
35% chance
Matthew Yglesias 2024 predictions: Net electoral college bias continues to favor the GOP
98% chance
Will a Democrat have the Electoral College advantage in any of the next three elections (2024, 2028, or 2032)?
68% chance
If a Democrat wins the Presidency while losing the popular vote, will Republicans turn against the Electoral College?
59% chance
Will more Americans support abolishing the Electoral College after the 2024 election?
67% chance
Will pro-GOP electoral college bias diminish from its 2020 level?
96% chance
Will there be an electoral college majority in the 2028 US Presidential Election?
91% chance
Matthew Yglesias 2024 predictions: Pro-GOP electoral college bias diminishes from its 2020 level
96% chance