Matthew Yglesias 2024 predictions: Net electoral college bias continues to favor the GOP
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98%
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https://www.slowboring.com/p/my-2024-predictions
This is a prediction from Matthew Yglesias's 2024 predictions. I will be resolving early when possible but in cases of ambiguity, the ultimate source of truth is Matt's evaluation.
Matt predicts 60% for this question
Matt's calibration for reference:
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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Popular vote at +1.43% Republican vs tipping point state (PA) vote at +1.71%, for an overall bias of 0.28%>0, according to https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/11/05/us/elections/results-president.html
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