By when will first Starship be reused?
By when will first Starship be reused?
Plus
43
Ṁ76352031
77%
December 2026 or Earlier
67%
June 2026 or Earlier
22%
December 2025 or Earlier
9%
September 2025 or Earlier
5%
Never
Resolves to Never if No Starship is Reused by 2030, unless there are concrete plans indicating plans to do so in very near future(~2 years), in which case the market could be extended with additional options.
Starship Reusability means both ship and booster have to be successfully flown once before.
Does not count if only one of them is reused.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
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