When will SpaceX first reuse Starship 2nd stage?
When will SpaceX first reuse Starship 2nd stage?
Plus
15
Ṁ60772026
3%
Before 2025-07-01
5%
Before 2025-08-01
9%
Before 2025-09-01
15%
Before 2025-10-01
25%
Before 2026-01-01
61%
Before 2026-04-01
78%
Before 2026-07-01
90%
Before 2026-10-01
95%
Before 2027-01-01
Resolved
NOBefore 2024-10-01
Resolved
NOBefore 2025-01-01
Resolved
NOBefore 2025-04-01
The market will resolve as soon as SpaceX manages to launch a Starship rocket, successfully lands it, and launches it for the second time. The second launch doesn't have to be fully successful, the market will resolve positively as long as the rocket leaves the pad.
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When will SpaceX first reuse Superheavy (Starship 1st stage)?
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
By when will first Starship be reused?
When will SpaceX first reuse Superheavy (Starship 1st stage)?
Will SpaceX re-fly a Starship upper stage in 2025? (Everyday Astronaut 2025 Predictions)
9% chance
By when will SpaceX re-fly a space-flown Starship?
Will there be a SpaceX Starship launch in the second quarter of 2025?
97% chance
Non-SpaceX reusable first stage by 2025?
80% chance
Will SpaceX fly a reusable Falcon 9 second stage before 2030?
3% chance
When will SpaceX successfully land Starship for the first time?
In what year will SpaceX first launch Starship more times than Falcon 9?
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