Resolved based on the first party (/coalition) guaranteed supply following the 2025 federal election, as determined by the swearing-in of a prime minister by the Governor-General. It will not be necessary for the House of Representatives to sit for the question to be resolved.
If there is a lengthy delay determining who is guaranteed supply (like 2010), delaying the swearing-in beyond 11.59pm (AEST) on 30 June 2025, the question will resolve to the 'Other / none' option.
The perceived strength / fragility of any coalition will not be taken into account. However, the swearing-in of an interim prime minister pending continued negotiations will not cause the question to resolve, even if they are guaranteed supply for some interim period.
Traditionally affiliated parties are lumped into the major categories above - e.g. the Queensland LNP and NT Country Liberal Party will be treated as part of the Liberal-National coalition. For the avoidance of doubt, the Greens will be treated as a minor party.
Please let me know if you have any questions or spot anything in the resolution criteria that can be made more precise. (I'm not a constitutional lawyer, sorry.)
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(EDIT at c. 8pm AEST on 22 April to remove the dodgy AI summary of my clarification comment below.)
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3.00One point of clarification, although I imagine it’s what everyone would have inferred anyway. (On the other hand, please sing out if you understood the original guidance differently and we can collectively nut out the consensus interpretation.)
By ‘guaranteed supply’, I only mean for the Governor-General to be sufficiently assured of a party having supply in order to be able to form government (see this summary from the Parliamentary Education Office).
It doesn’t need to be a literal ‘guarantee’ of supply come-what-may, nor a formal coalition for the passage of bills generally; just something firm enough for the Governor-General to be able to identify a government, and consequently, to swear in a prime minister.
@PhilosophyBear Funny but I almost think it’s literally impossible. Unless teals and greens get completely wiped out