Will there be 2 or more combinatorics problems on IMO 2025 x Will AI get a gold medal on IMO 2025?
Will there be 2 or more combinatorics problems on IMO 2025 x Will AI get a gold medal on IMO 2025?
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18
Ṁ2479Sep 2
15%
Yes/Yes
33%
Yes/No
37%
No/Yes
15%
No/No
https://manifold.markets/jack/will-an-ai-win-a-gold-medal-on-imo, or the AIMO main prize resolves yes, then the AI has won a gold medal on the IMO.
The source for whether a problem is a combinatorics problem will be Evan Chen. https://web.evanchen.cc/upload/MOHS-hardness.pdf
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Is there any particular reason to prefer Evan Chen’s MOHS document over shortlist categories? There’s a chance Evan doesn’t upload MOHS in 2025, or it might take a very long time.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
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and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
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