Will AI win a gold on IMO before it wins a gold on IOI?
Plus
24
Ṁ39542040
69%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Will resolve to 50% if somehow it happens at exactly the same time. 100% if before, 0% if after.
Update 2025-04-01 (PST): - IMO is scheduled before IOI each year. Therefore, if both events occur on the release date, the market will resolve to yes rather than a 50% outcome. (AI summary of creator comment)
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Related questions
Related questions
Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?
83% chance
Will an AI score 1st place on International Math Olympiad (IMO) 2025?
35% chance
Will an AI win a gold medal on International Math Olympiad (IMO) 2025?
80% chance
Will an AI get bronze on any International Math Olympiad by 2025?
90% chance
Will AI get at least bronze on the IMO by end of 2025?
89% chance
What years will AI win IMO bronze (or higher)?
Will the first AI to get IMO gold use formal methods?
54% chance
Will an AI win a gold medal on the IOI (competitive programming contest) before 2026?
85% chance
Will an AI win a gold medal on the IOI (competitive programming contest) before 2027?
89% chance
Will there be 2 or more combinatorics problems on IMO 2025 x Will AI get a gold medal on IMO 2025?