I bet yes because outside of China, no one really has an incentive to open source a frontier model. Chinese labs are open sourcing their near-frontier models as they compete for state support.

Meta is the only Western company with frontier level model capabilities and a strong incentive to open source. And, it seems unlikely that they will just happen to release Llama 5 in December and it will also be the best model.

@jim Is "open weights" is sufficient to count for this?

@DanHomerick the plan is just to use lmarena's designation. If it's listed as something other than "proprietary" will probably count.

Accord to NYT? Never. Highest Eli score would b due to “copying”, “trickery”, “undisclosed info in the 1st page of disclosure doc”, “conspiracy”…besides “we don’t use Elo anymore”.

Next article “China threatens the world with leading LLM model”

This market splits the manifolders in half

hey @Bayesian don't be pusillanimous, place your bets!

@jim sorry what, the probability of this is like 10%

oh, open model. nvm

hmmm yeah i'll buy this up

@Bayesian ya I had the same reaction... I still think there's less than 40% chance of this by EOY tho, tbh

ig google might cook up some decent OS stuff

as might meta

arbitrage with https://manifold.markets/Sss19971997/best-open-weight-llm-by-eoy-2025-by