The gap will close between the quality of open source language models and Google's internal language models in 2 years
Basic
3
Ṁ175May 4
29%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolves to my subjective opinion of the state of the art / expert consensus. (I don't have any better ideas)
(If you think this market is poorly written/specified/has a mistake, tell me, and I may edit it within the first couple days)
Operationalizing a claim from https://www.semianalysis.com/p/google-we-have-no-moat-and-neither (hacker news comments)
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Sort by:
sister markets - The gap will close between the quality of open source language models and Google's internal language models in two years / five years
"Large models aren’t more capable in the long run if we can iterate faster on small models" within two years / five years
Related questions
Related questions
By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?
34% chance
The gap will close between the quality of open source language models and Google's internal language models in 5 years
13% chance
Will there be an AI language model that strongly surpasses ChatGPT and other OpenAI models before the end of 2025?
49% chance
By 2025 will there be a competitive large language model with >50% of the total training data generated from a large language model?
75% chance
Best available language model from an OpenAI competitor by 2026
73% chance
Most popular language model from OpenAI competitor by 2026?
38% chance
Will Transformer based architectures still be SOTA for language modelling by 2026?
70% chance
Will a language model that runs locally on a consumer cellphone beat GPT4 by EOY 2026?
72% chance
We are going to start running out of data to train large language models in [YEAR]
By 2030, will large language models still be at the peak of AI? [DRAFT]
30% chance