DeepSeek will have the best language model in the world by a clear margin as of Feb 1 2026
DeepSeek will have the best language model in the world by a clear margin as of Feb 1 2026
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Resolves YES if DeepSeek has the top language model* in the world by a wide margin as of Feb 1st, 2026. If DeepSeek the organization is absorbed by another org, or otherwise transitions into a new org, then that organization's models are counted instead.
A DeepSeek model leading LMSys Arena by ≥90 points is sufficient but not necessary to count as "a wide margin."
Resolves NO otherwise.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
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