Did the board of OpenAI recieve a letter about the Q* AI 'breakthrough'?
Plus
18
Ṁ1139Jan 1
58%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolves to my judgement (or judgement of a council of moderators if disputed) of the truth once the dust settles and news stops coming out.
Exclusive: OpenAI researchers warned board of AI breakthrough ahead of CEO outster -sources
Resolves to
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000
and3.00
Sort by:
I came around to thinking this seems decently likely. they probably got some good early results that hinted at the possibility of a pretty big improvement in math and coding ability and the board received info about that, basically. that affecting their interactions slightly but not in a transparent, clear way also seems likely. but ultimately we probably won't hear more than this for a while
@jacksonpolack If you aren't convinced either way you can just resolve it N/A, or to your credence that this happened, or something.
Related questions
Related questions
Will the breakthrough(s) mentioned in the OpenAI board letter go to history as a pivotal step on the path to AGI?
44% chance
Does OpenAI's Q* 'breakthrough' represent a significant advance in AI capabilities?
84% chance
Is OpenAI's Q* real?
87% chance
Did OpenAI make a breakthrough in Q* learning dramatically shortening AGI timelines?
27% chance
Will it be confirmed before 2026 that there was a letter to the board of OpenAI motivated by AI breakthrough?
7% chance
Will OpenAI have another public board issue before 2025?
22% chance
Did anyone from the OpenAI alignment team call for the board resignation without wanting it?
62% chance
Was there ever a memo of OpenAI leadership discussing selling to the Russian government to fund AI development?
22% chance
Will OpenAI publicly state that they are giving AI a board observer seat or greater on their board by 2030?
15% chance
Is the Reuters report about AI breakthrough Q* contributing to Sam Altman's firing accurate?
16% chance