Did OpenAI make a breakthrough in Q* learning dramatically shortening AGI timelines?
Basic
11
Ṁ2732026
22%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Will resolve true if evidence shows that before Sam Altman was fired, OpenAI made a breakthrough in combining Q* learning with LLMs that led to discontinuous capabilities advance.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Related questions
Related questions
Will OpenAI hint at or claim to have AGI by Jan 1, 2030? (1000M Subsidy)
84% chance
Does OpenAI's Q* 'breakthrough' represent a significant advance in AI capabilities?
84% chance
Will OpenAI claim that it has achieved AGI in 2025?
5% chance
Will OpenAI hint at [read description] or claim to have AGI by 2025 end?
13% chance
Will OpenAI hint at or claim to have AGI by 2025 end?
32% chance
when will OpenAI have announced they have achieved AGI?
Will OpenAI be in the lead in the AGI race end of 2026?
41% chance
Will the breakthrough(s) mentioned in the OpenAI board letter go to history as a pivotal step on the path to AGI?
56% chance
At the start of 2030 will I believe that OpenAI had AGI in 2024?
12% chance
Did the board of OpenAI recieve a letter about the Q* AI 'breakthrough'?
58% chance