Added a new option for "Other" to include all other players not on this list, which means the current list is final

Having failed to win sole first in the World Rapid, Arjun can't overtake Fabi if he wins sole first in the World Blitz (esp. after Carlsen withdrew)

World Cup top 4s

Pre-registering my take early so I see how it ages: I'm extremely bearish on Abdusattorov and predict he won't come even close to qualifying. He's a 2800-level fighter and practical player but his chess in 2024 has been abjectly mediocre and unimpressive and he's been surviving on bad positions and swindles.

I've bet no on a bunch of people because the total % was much more than 800%, you can check with [...document.querySelectorAll('.whitespace-nowrap.font-bold.text-lg')].map(e => e.textContent).map(e => Number(e.replace('%',''))).reduce((a,b) => a+b, 0)

@Lorenzo ditto. There is a strange plateau when it should be more of a regular curve. I bet those on the plateau

@dlin007 The qualification paths really don't favor Hikaru-he doesn't play enough to qualify by circuit and probably rating, so will need to rank near the top of the grand swiss or world cup.

@Nightsquared But that is 5 spots in Candidates. Abd he has decent chance to qualify by rating, since possibly Caruana and Arjun will be already qualified.

@Weezing They're high variability compared to rating (or circuit if Hikaru played more)-harder for a top player to be top 3 of a 7-round single elimination tournament or a 100-person Swiss than to be in the top 2-3 of rated players not qualified for candidates/championship (i.e. how it used to be).

@Nightsquared it is higher variability, but still he is in better position than almost all of the other players. To play enough to have a good chnace in the circuit will be difficult for anyone.

@Nightsquared Hikaru will almost certainly be top 5 in the grand swiss IMO, and despite his claims to the contrary, will be motivated to qualify for the candidates