@MatthewDonovan why so confident in a conservative outcome?

@chris I probably bought slightly more than I should have (I didn't realize how low the overall liquidity / pool of bets was on this market). But overall I think Carney is getting most of his boost from the media vs the actual people and as a result the Election Day results will show the LPC underperforming the recent polls

@chris At the end of the day the LPC have been in party since 2015 and I think similarly to what has happened twice now in the States, Canadians are going to go to the polls and vote based on their experience in daily life and not how the media is telling them to think. (Similar to the Reagan question of "Are you better off now than you were four years ago?")

This market is a bit more confident about a liberal majority https://manifold.markets/copiumarc/liberal-party-of-canada-majority-go

Liberals now forecasted to have majority government. Incredible.

Arb opportunity: https://manifold.markets/DanielGallant/what-will-be-the-results-of-the-202-lZQqUqqZu9

This market prefers conservatives compared to 338 prediction which prefers liberals

@chris Note that 338 is "the election if it were held today," which is different than predicting the election in so-and-so months.

https://manifold.markets/dittopoop/will-the-conservative-party-of-cana

Im an LPC believer too but im SO CONFUSED why this market is consistently 10pts lower

I'm so confused, can't multiple of these resolve yes?

@HillaryClinton I assumed that if Conservatives have more seats than liberals, but still a minority, it would resolve to Conservative minority.

Is that what you are confused about or something else?

@Seanny123 so what if conservatives have a majority and liberals have a minority?

@HillaryClinton only one party can form government

I'm honestly surprised Manifold is still favouring the Conservatives.