Who will be President of the United States on 1 Jan 2026?
Who will be President of the United States on 1 Jan 2026?
Basic
6
Ṁ3782026
1D
1W
1M
ALL
90%
Donald Trump
7%
JD Vance
3%
This question resolves YES to the named individual who holds the office of President on the morning of 1 Jan 2026. This question does not resolve to non-named individuals (e.g. descriptions of persons). Feel free to add full names to the above list.
See also:
Who will be President of the United States on 1 Jan 2026? (this question)
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
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