Will the next pope think gay sex is a sin?
80
Ṁ9964
Dec 31
91%
chance

Basically if the next pope has said that having gay sex, being in a gay relationship or being gay is a sin and has not since said otherwise then this will resolve yes, otherwise no.

  • Update 2025-04-22 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Clarification:

    • If the next pope qualifies his statement by saying that being gay is not inherently a sin but that acting on it is, this situation will resolve as yes.

    • The intent remains focused on whether the pope takes an anti-gay stance.

  • Update 2025-04-24 changing title from "being gay" to "gay sex" and description from "being gay" to "having gay sex, being in a gay relationship or being gay" at the prompting of a comment.

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This is a very oddly phrased question, given that the position of the church is that homosexuality is disordered, but gay people are not inherently living in a state of sin. I recommend that the title and description be updated to match the resolution criteria.

@Elspeth I do appreciate the fun of the click-baity title though

@Elspeth sure, I still think "being gay" is the best umbrella term for the set of actions I am trying to group together, but I can understand how that could be confusing. I am not sure if my changed title is any better, but I at least made the description more specific (although I think it was already pretty specific due to the ai generated bit). If you have any suggestions for a better title or additional changes to the description feel free to suggest them.

bought Ṁ50 YES

@Elspeth It's the catholic doctrinal phrasing that is odd.

@Elspeth that doesn’t match my impression of the stance, given what the (now former) pope said in an interview: https://apnews.com/article/pope-francis-gay-rights-ap-interview-1359756ae22f27f87c1d4d6b9c8ce212

In short, that is is a sin but should not criminalized, and they are still loved by God.

Granted, I do not know much about the official rules vs their expression through Francis, or any nuances of translation.

@bluerat I think the previous title was fine, but if you still felt compelled to change it I would do so to a less narrow scope. As it stands the title currently excludes things like gay dating

@GleamingRhino It is just odd to me that people we dislike have personhood that ends at their skull but people we like are holistic beings inseparable from ways of life and relationships.

@GleamingRhino

In short, that is is a sin but should not criminalized, and they are still loved by God.

It's not just Francis that says this. it is basic catholic doctrine and is true of any sin. God loves you whatever you do. There is literally nothing you can do to make God not love you.

bought Ṁ200 NO

most of the top candidates have known opinions on this:

Pietro Parolin: 28% (YES)

Luis Antonio Tagle: 23% (NO)

Matteo Zuppi: 10% (NO, a bit uncertain here but more likely no)

Pierbattista Pizzaballa: 9% (YES)

Péter Erdő: 6% (YES)

Peter Turkson: 5% (YES)

Fridolin Ambongo Besungu: 3% (YES)

Robert Sarah: 2% (YES)

Anders Arborelius: 1.1% (YES)

José Tolentino Calaça de Mendonça: 1% (NO)

Fair value based on this: .57 as of current standings in the pope market. At the very least Tagle is most likely a NO so this should trade below 1 - p(luis antonio tagle). I bought it down half the way: i'll let someone else do the rest.

3 traders bought Ṁ225 NO

@CrypticQccZ Can you point me to a resource supporting your claim about Tagle? The articles I’ve found say the opposite

filled a Ṁ50 YES at 62% order

How does this resolve in a case like “being gay is not inherently a sin but acting on it is” or the like?

@GleamingRhino great question that I should have thought of earlier. I think it's fair to resolve yes in that situation. The title for this question was originally going to be "will the next pope be anti-gay?" And that's still essentially what I'm trying to ask. I changed it in an attempt to be less subjective.

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