Federal judge has ordered the return of Maryland resident Kilmar Abrego Garcia to the US by 11:59pm on Monday. This resolves YES if he is returned to the US by that date.
This resolves YES even if Garcia isn't physically back in the US, but is, for example, removed from El Salvador and is on a US vessel or some other form of US detention, by that time.
This resolves YES if Garcia is brought back to the US and subsequently deported by other means.
This resolves YES if there is some doubt as to the precise time by which Garcia is brought back to the US, but generally it appears possible that it happened by midnight, and certainly by the next morning, or something. If there's very precise reporting that it happened after midnight without doubt, then it resolves NO, though.
Read this reporting to understand the context:
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Oops, resolved this early (it should resolve after midnight if he’s still not back) but ultimately this looks like it will resolve NO. Market closed early and it’s still closed.
One of the first very clear test cases for whether the Trump admin will follow a federal judge's order.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Are our predictions accurate?
How do I win cash prizes?
and can't be cashed out. to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.1.00