Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, by 11:59 PM UTC on July 31, 2025, there is credible reporting from reputable news organizations confirming that Iran has conducted a direct military attack on U.S. military bases located in the Middle East. The attack must be initiated by Iranian state forces and result in physical damage or casualties. Indirect actions, such as those carried out by proxy groups, will not count towards resolution. Verification will be based on reports from established news outlets like Reuters, BBC, or The New York Times.

Background

Iran has previously threatened U.S. military installations in the Middle East. In April 2024, Iranian leaders warned that U.S. bases would be targeted if the U.S. participated in Israeli strikes against Iran. (defencesecurityasia.com) Additionally, in July 2024, Iranian-backed militias in Iraq resumed attacks on U.S. forces, indicating a pattern of hostility towards U.S. military presence in the region. (iswresearch.org)

Considerations

While Iran has a history of threatening U.S. bases, actual direct attacks by Iranian state forces are less common, with proxy groups often being used to carry out such actions. Traders should consider the distinction between direct state actions and proxy activities when making predictions.

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, by 11:59 PM UTC on July 31, 2025, reputable news organizations report that Iran has conducted a direct military attack on U.S. military bases located in the Middle East. The attack must be initiated by Iranian state forces and result in physical damage or casualties. Indirect actions, such as those carried out by proxy groups, will not count towards resolution. Verification will be based on reports from established news outlets like Reuters, BBC, or The New York Times.

Background

Iran has previously threatened U.S. military installations in the Middle East. In April 2024, Iranian leaders warned that U.S. bases would be targeted if the U.S. participated in Israeli strikes against Iran. (defencesecurityasia.com) Additionally, in October 2024, Iranian-backed militias in Iraq threatened to target U.S. bases if the U.S. joined any response against Iran. (arabnews.com)

Considerations

While Iran has a history of threatening U.S. bases, actual direct attacks by Iranian state forces are less common, with proxy groups often being used to carry out such actions. Traders should consider the distinction between direct state actions and proxy activities when making predictions.