By 2028, will there be a public instance of an AI cybersecurity system autonomously replicating itself? | Manifold

By 2028, will there be a public instance of an AI cybersecurity system autonomously replicating itself?

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14

Ṁ110

2027

36%

chance

1D

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1M

ALL

Yes: There is at least one publicly reported instance.

No: There are no publicly reported instances.

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And what would qualify as an AI cybersecurity system? Does it have to be trained specifically for cybersecurity? Deployed originally for cybersecurity uses? Does a generalist model with cybersecurity capabilities count?

Would a contained experiment count, like e.g. Anthropic doing model organisms of misalignment or ARC evals creating a concrete demonstration? Or does it have to be "in the wild"?

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Related questions

What AI safety incidents will occur in 2025?

Will there be an anti-AI terrorist incident by 2028?

Will AI be Recursively Self Improving by mid 2026?

By 2026 will there be autonomous AI good enough that I use it?

By 2029, will an AI escape containment?

By the end of 2028, will AI models, as Dario Amodei speculates, be able to “replicate and survive in the wild”?

Will a major AI company acknowledge the possibility of conscious AIs by 2026?

By 2029, will there be a public "rogue AI" incident?

There will be a name for escaped self-perpetuating AI systems in the wild, and it will be commonly used by mid 2027

Will the ai replication paper be replicated?

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