Will Trump golf for at least 25% of his first 6 months?
20
Ṁ1429
Oct 25
69%
chance

Resolution source: https://trumpgolftrack.com/

Details:

  • Resolves YES if "Time Spent Golfing" is at least 25% after his first 6 months (i.e. July 20th), and NO if "Time Spent Golfing" is <25%.

  • I plan to resolve following the linked webpage, and I make no promises about (a) the comprehensiveness/rigor of their sourcing & (b) the definitions they use.

  • However, if the site seems slow to update, I will wait a few days to resolve & will do my best to estimate what the true July 20th percentage would have been based on their tally.

    • E.g. if it says "24%" on July 20th day but early the next morning they update the site and include that day as a golf day, it could still resolve YES, it's clear that the intended tally was 25%.

    • But if e.g. they "missed a day" because of their sourcing, that doesn't matter, it resolves based on their tally.

  • Other exception: if it's clear that the site is essentially abandoned (e.g. they're not making any sort of good faith effort to keep the tally updated), then this will N/A.

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