Manifold's favorite Manifest 2025 session?
23
Ṁ8012
Jun 24
91%
Scott Alexander: Forecasting Transformative AI Using The Book Of Revelation
1.5%
Allison Duettmann- Decentralized AI
1.3%Other
1.0%
Joe carlsmith model welfare talk
  • Resolves to a poll, created after market close, with the listed options (excluding "other") ranked in order by their final probability.

  • The poll will run for one week, and ties resolve proportionally.

  • Add your own options—they should be listed as a session on the Manifest schedule (i.e. not just "a fun thing that happened"), although you can tweak the official title to make it more clear if you'd like.

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Ṁ1,000
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27d

@Ziddletwix Was this recorded? Now I want to see it, lol.

bought Ṁ500 YES28d

@Ziddletwix I'll bet more around 60% if you are interested

wait scratch that, 50% (edit: 55% limit order now for 1 hour)

opened a Ṁ2,000 YES at 60% order28d

now 60%?!?!

1mo

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