Manifest 2023 is Manifold's inaugural forecasting conference — more info & buy tickets here!
We'll award M100 to any especially good session ideas, and M500 to any session idea that ends up being run by Manifold/Manifest staff. We might also raise the bounties, if there are a lot of good ideas! :)
EDIT: Good ideas that've already been floated by the organizing team won't count toward the M500 bounties (but we'll still give the M100 bounties!). Adding to/changing/improving on existing ideas (like @Joshua 's comment), however, do still count toward the M500 bounty.
1,000
3.00A meta challenge such as a game of assassin tied to markets or putting people in teams for the conference with waypoints like number of traders on their team's questions and session attendance
The mathematics of portfolio management. Kelly betting, correlated risk, opportunity costs, etc.
Relationship between betting to win money and making good predictions. Alpha and Beta in markets. Other trading concepts and how they apply to prediction markets.
A talk on performative prediction, where the act of making a prediction affects the outcome
A talk on the Conditioning Predictive Models agenda in AI Safety
Overview/deep dive/discussion of Manifold’s technical architecture and design (backend, frontend, API, etc could each have their own session if there’s enough interest… maybe also go into future roadmap/ideas?)
A panel on the regulation of political betting markets in the United States and abroad, which will discuss how and why these markets are regulated, and what can be done to reform regulations to serve the public interest.
A game of mafia in which there's a a market for each player on whether they're in the mafia, and where the daily execution is decided not by voting but by the highest-priced player at the end of the day
I've run something similar before: https://arjunpanickssery.substack.com/p/play-my-futarchyprediction-market
A Keynesian beauty contest Keynesian beauty contest. Participants try to predict which participant a majority of participants thinks looks most like John Maynard Keynes.
Game show format: only a few contestants compete. (The audience can participate via betting on who will win etc.) Promotional twist! Contestants can phone a friend for help, but only if that friend has never heard of Manifold.
A talk on Logical Induction and/or Bounded Rational Inductive Agents (Oesterheld, Demski, and Conitzer 2023).
I would really love some live betting on second-to-second but otherwise silly events; think like marble olympics https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OUuYf6e8LEs.
Could the user-base help MF compound part of the available funding through low-cost, high volatility investment bets? How?
Invite experts and let them make predictions in their field. Compare them to a random person making predictions about the same questions. Repeat with different fields and compare. Which experts can predict their field the best?
How to communicate technical stuff with nontechnical people, including live demos and practice