In what year will Tesla start mass production of its Optimus Bot
In what year will Tesla start mass production of its Optimus Bot
Plus
27
Ṁ42602034
0.6%
2024
6%
2025
19%
2026
8%
>2030
66%
Resolution Clarifications:
Product rename does not change the outcome, i.e. the bot's name does not need to be "Optimus" for a positive resolution of a specific year
"Other" = Cancellation of the Optimus Program, Insolvency, Significant Change of Design (Humanoid -> 4-legged does not count, humanoid -> 6DoF Arm counts as "Other")
Mass production indicators:
first deliveries
explicit communication of mass production start
announcement of a number of produced "Optimus" Bots that is > x
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Mass production indicators:
first deliveries
explicit communication of mass production start
announcement of a number of produced "Optimus" Bots that is > x
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
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