Will Tesla's first robotaxi fare be sold by the end of 2025?
Will Tesla's first robotaxi fare be sold by the end of 2025?
Basic
36
Ṁ7106
Dec 31
75%
chance

For it to count as a robotaxi fare, there must be no Tesla employee in the car and the car must drive to the customer without anyone in it. This would technically include things like a remote driving system where a human remotely is driving the car.

  • Update 2025-05-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): A train is unlikely to count as the vehicle for the robotaxi fare.

Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S3.00


Sort by:
bought Ṁ50 YES2d
3mo

Does a train count?

1mo

@MingweiSamuel I doubt it

8mo

I think you mean: "without anyone in it"

1mo
2y
2y

@makoyass well, they are slightly different in that this one needs to be paid

What is this?

What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana Ṁ and can't be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash S to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at
S1.00
→ $1.00
, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.
© Manifold Markets, Inc.Terms + Mana-only TermsPrivacyRules