Background
Fordow is a deeply buried Iranian nuclear facility located roughly 80–90 meters inside a mountain near Qom, making it resistant to standard airstrikes. Only the U.S. operates the 30,000‑lb GBU‑57 "Massive Ordnance Penetrator" (MOP), which can be delivered by B‑2 stealth bombers—platforms Israel does not possess. U.S. officials have consistently declined to transfer the MOP or B‑2s to allies, although there is public debate over a potential lend‑lease-like arrangement to allow Israel access. Analysts note that Israel could attempt a risky multi-bomb conventional strategy, rely on cyberattacks, commando raids, or lighter bunker-busters it already holds. However, If U.S. equipment like B‑2s or MOPs are used, operations must clearly be undertaken by Israeli forces to ensure proper attribution.
Resolution Criteria
“Yes” resolves if, by January 1, 2026 any one of the following is publicly confirmed and clearly attributable to Israel:
Commando raid: Open‑source imagery or credible reporting confirms Israeli special‑forces or drones infiltrated Fordow, causing material damage.
Cyberattack: Public evidence shows a cyber‑operation significantly disabled centrifuge operations or control systems tied to Fordow.
Conventional strike: Satellite imagery or credible military intel confirms an Israeli airstrike—using light or bunker-buster bombs—has materially damaged Fordow’s underground structures.
Infrastructure sabotage: Operatives destroyed or disabled power, tunnels, entrances, or other support systems critical to Fordow’s function.
U.S.-supplied systems used by Israel: If Israel employs U.S. hardware (e.g., B‑2/MOP), evidence must show Israeli pilots/operators and chain-of-command execution—ruling out purely covert U.S. operations.
Other methods – includes any undisclosed tactics or hybrid operations (e.g., smuggled drones, intelligence-led sabotage) that are confirmed and credited to Israel—even if not listed above.
Evidence must include credible attribution: tracked flight logs, authoritative OSINT clearly linking Israel to the action, or another reliable method.
The answer resolves “No” if none of these are confirmed—including cases where the U.S. alone acts or attribution remains ambiguous.
Update 2025-06-21 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Given recent news reports of US attack, the creator will resolve the market to NO if it is confirmed that the Fordow facility has already been destroyed to an extent that would make a subsequent intervention by Israel unnecessary.
Update 2025-06-21 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market will be resolved to NO before the closing date if there is sufficient evidence that the U.S. bombing has destroyed the Fordow facility to an extent that would make a subsequent intervention by Israel unnecessary.
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3.00@Yaqubali That would be too early I think; we don't know the full extent of the damage yet so it could still be possible that there is enough remaining of the facility for Israel to launch an attack that 'significantly degrades' the facility
@zsig okay. Will wait for further news showing the facility has been destroyed thus making another intervention unnecessary.
@Yaqubali Resolving this market to NO for any reason before January 2026 would be a mistake. I believe you should wait for the specified end time in your title and initial description.
@Cactus if there is sufficient evidence that the US bombing destroyed the facility then that would make Israel bombing it unnecessary.
@Yaqubali Even if it seems "unnecessary" I believe resolution should still wait until the end of the year. There can be edge cases; for example the US nearly destroying the facility but it getting repaired or rebuilt, only to be bombed by Israel later in the year. Or perhaps Israel was also a part of the recent bombing but we don't find out about that until a later date.