Will Keir Starmer have a full term as Prime Minister?
Basic
28
Ṁ2491
2029
56%
chance

Resolves No if any of the following actions occur:

Keir Starmer fails to form a parliamentary majority in the 2024 election as seen on Wikipedia (2019 equivalent: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_United_Kingdom_general_election)

Keir Starmer resigns or is deposed by a vote of no confidence before the next General Election is scheduled to be held (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_United_Kingdom_general_election).



  • Update 2025-06-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - If a general election is held before 2024 and Keir Starmer maintains his parliamentary majority, the question will resolve to a yes.

    • If he loses his parliamentary majority in an early election, the question will resolve to a no.

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What would happen in the case of an early election? It is common for PMs to call an election after 4 years.

@Nico If he manages to maintain his majority, he will seen as carrying on his term and hence the question will resolve to a yes (assuming nothing else happens).

If he doesn't, the question will resolve to a no.

bought Ṁ65 YES

@XamDingdong we don't have fixed term parliaments in the UK. Every election is an "early" election unless it's held on the latest possible date. I would argue that if an election is held after 4 years, that should count as a full term and the question should resolve YES even if Labour loses.

@Fion also, just to note that the AI summary in the description of your response to this comment isn't right. It's talking about an election before 2024, which wasn't the question

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