@DonutThrow shorting Keir like crazy 😂

This market is currently saying there’s about a 10% chance of an election before this closes. Do people really think there’s a 20%+ chance that Labour oust Starmer for some other reason before then?

@Noit I think @DonutThrow must have inside info 👀

@Fion The Tories cycled through Boris, Truss and Sunak. Why wouldn't Labour replace a deeply unpopular PM who has no plan or capacity to reverse his slide?

@DonutThrow the Tories had a smaller parliamentary majority, which I think makes it easier to remove the PM. Also, Johnson and Truss both had specific crises that resulted in their ousting. I reckon Starmer is a more mature, risk averse person than both of them.

But you have a point. These do feel like less stable times than the old days.

@Fion When it becomes obvious that Starmer's unpopularity is permanent there is no reason to keep him. Right now there is hope he can bounce back, in 9 months it will be obvious that he is not just unpopular but unlikeable.IMO ofc