Let's say it becomes a near certainty that Tumbles cannot pay off any of his remaining loans. What is to stop someone from just buying all of his debt for some arbitrarily small amount and forgiving it in order to make a profit on this market? Why isn't this equivalent to him defaulting on his debt?

@AndrewHebb why would anyone want to prevent someone doing that?

@AndrewHebb Someone who owns a large number of YES shares (maybe Hillary? Semiotic?) could demand the full amount.

@AndrewHebb

What is to stop someone from just buying all of his debt for some arbitrarily small amount and forgiving it in order to make a profit on this market? Why isn't this equivalent to him defaulting on his debt?

this would be roughly equivalent to all of his creditors forgiving his debt. if they all miraculously did this, i don't see why that wouldn't count for this market. but i don't see why they'd all do that?

you can say they'd do that if it was a certainty that tumbles will default, and thus he won't default. but if enough forgive their debts that repayment starts to seem plausible, then other creditors will demand more of their loans. this will naturally balance itself out, especially since people are selling tumbles debt back and forth.

(plus, @TimothyJohnson5c16 is right that there are YES holders who would be willing to buy that debt and demand full repayment. and the existence of those YES holders again means that if there's any chance tumbles might repay in full, creditors are incentivized to not sell for pennies on the dollar).

https://manifold.markets/Robincvgr/will-i-eat-any-amount-of-tumbles-bl?play=true

Will Tumbles provide blood to Robin for mana before August?21%‌

Could someone help pay back my loan?

@manifoldgod you are looking to sell your debt? There are a lot of people buying right now if you'd like to make them an offer.

@cthor i dont know what this fancy stuff is
i dont have much

@manifoldgod Tumbles owes you mana, but he does not have a lot of mana, so there is a chance he won't be able to pay you back. If you want to be paid now, or you don't think he will be able to pay you back, you could sell your debt to someone else. What that means is they'll pay you some amount now (probably less than the amount owed), and then Tumbles will owe that person mana instead.

I'm willing to sell my debt for 12000 mana if anyone is willing to buy
More is always better since I'm really poor

@manifoldgod it doesn't look like your account is on the register, unless you changed usernames

@bens April 20th 2026 - Ṁ18,000

@bens I decided to do something weird to my username

I have purchased the following debt and am delaying payment till June 1st as a sign of good faith

May 13th 2025 - Ṁ13,000 @StopPunting

@HillaryClinton Well thank you!

@HillaryClinton confirmed!

@HillaryClinton 🙏

I will be attending Manifest!

https://manifest.is/schedule

SG has been kind enough to offer me a ticket 🧡

If any debt holders would like to use their leverage over me, this could be the ideal time!

@Tumbles ❤

@Tumbles I haven't sorted out hotel arrangements and such yet, DM me if you have an open spot! I'll sleep on hotel room floor to save $$$

Still people wanting to sell there debt or is the market cooling down?

@TheWabiSabi I'll transfer mine (33000M on July 31st) for 30000M.

@TimothyJohnson5c16 too expensive for me. 33K for 20K is deal.

@TheWabiSabi Hmm, I'll wait a little and see if I get any better offers.

@TimothyJohnson5c16 offer stands 24H ;)

@TheWabiSabi I have an 80k debt coming due on June 8th. Idk what I’m doing with it but would be open to offers