This market assesses the likelihood of either Israel or Iran deploying a large scale biological weapon, electromagnetic pulse (EMP) weapon or a dirty bomb before December 31, 2025. An EMP attack involves detonating a nuclear device at high altitude to disrupt electronic systems, while a dirty bomb combines conventional explosives with radioactive material to contaminate areas. Recent escalations, including Israel's Operation Rising Lion targeting Iranian nuclear facilities and Iran's retaliatory missile strikes, have heightened concerns about unconventional warfare tactics. Resolution will be based on credible reports from international news agencies confirming such an event. Source: AP News
1,000
3.00@SteveBright It is hard to imagine a strategic or tactical goal that bio or dirty bomb would achieve (as witnessed by their rare use - weapon systems that are useful are almost never phased out of arsenal). EMPs might have actual use but are a pretty extreme escalation, likely to alienate allies/neutrals and Iran most likely doesn't have the capacity. Israel might be able to pull it off, but this would imply publicly announcing its nuclear capabilities which seems undesirable even if they were willing to accept the reputational cost.