Will Dan Hendrycks believe xAI has had a meaningful positive impact on AI alignment at the end of 2024?
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Eager to hear from Dan Hendrycks what he would be some of the criteria he is looking for that would cause this to resolve as Yes!

  • Update 2025-08-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - The market did not have predefined resolution criteria, making it challenging to determine the outcome.

    • Based on Dan Hendrycks' tweet, it appears he believes xAI had a high relative positive impact, but whether this qualifies as a meaningful positive impact is subjective.

    • The creator is tentatively leaning towards resolving this market to N/A or 50-50, but is seeking opinions from others.

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https://x.com/DanHendrycks/status/1876458466145087567

This market never really had criteria so is a bit hard to resolve haha.
Based on his tweet it seems he believes XAI had a high relative positive impact, but whether this should count as a meaningful positive impact is hard to judge.

I'm tentatively leaning towards resolving this to either N/A or 50-50 but I am curious as to what others think.

I feel like he's the wrong person to ask. If he's publicly associated with it, it would be really awkward for him to say something bad about it.

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