If Trump/sitting President refuses Supreme Court order, what happens next?
22
Ṁ2343
2026
57%
>100K protest in DC
31%
Protest is met with lethal violence (1+ death)
30%
Impeachment by House (>50%) but not Senate (>66%)
20%
Martial Law declared
12%
Trump loses power
10%
Impeachment by House (>50%) and Senate (>66%)
7%
Civil War
5%
Military coup

If this question: /ajtalas/will-a-sitting-us-president-refuse resolves YES during Trump's second term, what happens within 1 year of the court order?

If Trump is replaced through legal means by Vance before, and Vance ignores court orders, this question still applies.

I will defer to other markets for resolution if there's a reasonable one.

I will not bet in this market.

See also:

/Siebe/if-republicans-lose-the-2028-presid

/Siebe/will-the-courts-strike-down-trumps

/PeterF/if-trump-wins-will-multiple-protest

/Flekkie/will-trump-declare-martial-law-in-t

#🇺🇸 US Politics
#Trump
#Trump's Second Term
#️ US Democracy
#SCOTUS
Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S3.00
Sort by:
bought Ṁ40 NO

He's already doing it with the Abrego Garcia case and TikTok. And the reaction has been pretty small so far, so I think he's very unlikely to receive an extreme amount of backlash.

@DrewSpartz I don't think he's actually refusing SCOTUS orders. The orders were pretty weak (though I was confused about this too!)

What time frame does this have to occur on? The GOP-controlled House wouldn't impeach him even if he announced that he was reorganizing the country into a dictatorship and starting a nuclear war. But after 2026, a Democratic House could impeach him for this.

@PlasmaBallin

resolves YES during Trump's second term, what happens within 1 year of the court order?

:)

Related questions

© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms + Mana-only Terms•Privacy•Rules