I reserve the right to bet in this market.
To resolve as YES, Trump must call for Zohran Mamdani's deportation by the end of 2025.
Caveats:
1. Trump does NOT need to explicitly say the words "Zohran Mamdani should be deported" or words of similar import to resolve as YES. Something like "We should probably look into that" in response to a reporter asking whether Mamdani should be deported is sufficient to resolve as YES. White House social media saying things of similar import will also resolve to YES.
2. However, it is NOT sufficient for Trump to merely suggest that Mamdani is here illegally. Starting a birther controversy or similar on its own will NOT be enough to resolve as YES.
3. Moreover, it is NOT sufficient for Trump to merely call for Mamdani's arrest or detention.
Update 2025-06-27 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - The market will resolve to YES if the Trump administration deports Zohran Mamdani, even without a preceding public call for it.
1,000
3.00A US congressman called for Mamdani's deportation today. https://x.com/RepOgles/status/1938301392416084150?t=-pl74_u2EOyuf4sAoYFogg&s=19
This will happen. Trump tweets too much.
But will something happen for real?
https://manifold.markets/tobiasscheuer/will-zohran-mamdani-be-arrested-or?r=dG9iaWFzc2NoZXVlcg
@traders I've added some resolution criteria here since this market seems to be ramping up. I imagine Trump doesn't know who Zohran Mamdani is yet, so I thought I would get ahead of the game before we are caught by surprise by Trump's first remarks on him.
Let me know if I can clarify anything.