Resolves to YES if a spacecraft completes a flyby of Saturn, or achieves orbital insertion, with at least one live human on board before January 1st, 2040. For the purpose of this market, a flyby of Saturn must occur within a distance of no more than 10 million kilometers from the planet.

Questions with the same criteria:

Will there be a crewed mission to Saturn before 2025?NO‌

Will there be a crewed mission to Saturn before 2030?4%‌

Will there be a crewed mission to Saturn before 2035?4%‌

Will there be a crewed mission to Saturn before 2040?8%‌ (this question)

Will there be a crewed mission to Saturn before 2045?13%‌

Will there be a crewed mission to Saturn before 2050?23%‌

Will there be a crewed mission to Saturn before 2055?40%‌

Related questions:

Will there be a crewed mission to Mercury before 2040?13%‌

Will there be a crewed mission to Venus before 2040?16%‌

Will there be a crewed mission to Mars before 2040?65%‌

Will there be a crewed mission to Jupiter before 2040?7%‌

Will there be a crewed mission to Saturn before 2040?8%‌ (this question)

Will there be a crewed mission to Uranus before 2040?6%‌

Will there be a crewed mission to Neptune before 2040?7%‌

Will there be a crewed mission to Pluto before 2040?3%‌

Other questions:

Will there be a Dyson Sphere around the Sun before 2040?4%‌

Will a laser lift a payload to space before 2040?26%‌

Will Earth have a Space Elevator before 2040?6%‌

Will we get AGI before 2040?80%‌

To meet the criteria, the human aboard the spacecraft must remain awake for at least one continuous hour during the period when the spacecraft is within the 10 million kilometers threshold from Saturn. Furthermore, during this awake period, the human's heart rate must not drop below 30 beats per minute (prohibiting some, hypothetical, methods of stasis).

The safe return of the human passenger is not a necessary condition for the market to resolve to YES. The human must be alive as the spacecraft reaches the 10 million kilometers threshold from Saturn. If the human is in a state of suspended animation or asleep at the time of crossing this threshold, they must be successfully resuscitated or woken up for at least one hour while the spacecraft remains under the specified distance from Saturn.

Additionally, the human on board must possess both a functioning brain and heart, with limited alterations. These vital organs may have undergone chemical, mechanical, or electronic modifications, provided that these enhancements do not significantly alter the organ's functioning compared to that of a typical human. Complete modification or replacement of any other organ in the human's body is permissible within the context of this question.

Image credits: https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Saturn_-_High_Resolution,_2004,_alt_crop.jpg