Resolves to YES if a spacecraft completes a flyby of Pluto, or achieves orbital insertion, with at least one live human on board before January 1st, 2040. For the purpose of this market, a flyby of Pluto must occur within a distance of no more than 1 million kilometers from its surface.
Questions with the same criteria:
Will there be a crewed mission to Pluto before 2025?NO
Will there be a crewed mission to Pluto before 2030?2%
Will there be a crewed mission to Pluto before 2035?2%
Will there be a crewed mission to Pluto before 2040?3% (this question)
Will there be a crewed mission to Pluto before 2045?8%
Will there be a crewed mission to Pluto before 2050?10%
Human venture on Pluto questions:
Will a human walk on Pluto before 2040?4%
Will a human walk on Pluto before 2045?6%
Will a human walk on Pluto before 2050?9%
Solar system exploration questions:
Will there be a crewed mission to Mercury before 2040?13%
Will there be a crewed mission to Venus before 2040?16%
Will there be a crewed mission to Mars before 2040?65%
Will there be a crewed mission to Jupiter before 2040?7%
Will there be a crewed mission to Saturn before 2040?8%
Will there be a crewed mission to Uranus before 2040?6%
Will there be a crewed mission to Neptune before 2040?7%
Will there be a crewed mission to Pluto before 2040?3% (this question)
To meet the criteria, the human aboard the spacecraft must remain awake for at least one continuous hour during the period when the spacecraft is within the 1 million kilometers threshold from Pluto. Furthermore, during this awake period, the human's heart rate must not drop below 30 beats per minute (prohibiting some, hypothetical, methods of stasis).
The safe return of the human passenger is not a necessary condition for the market to resolve to YES. The human must be alive as the spacecraft reaches the 1 million kilometers threshold from Pluto. If the human is in a state of suspended animation or asleep at the time of crossing this threshold, they must be successfully resuscitated or woken up for at least one hour while the spacecraft remains under the specified distance from Pluto.
Additionally, the human on board must possess both a functioning brain and heart, with limited alterations. These vital organs may have undergone chemical, mechanical, or electronic modifications, provided that these enhancements do not significantly alter the organ's functioning compared to that of a typical human. Complete modification or replacement of any other organ in the human's body is permissible within the context of this question.
Image credits: https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Pluto-01_Stern_03_Pluto_Color_TXT.jpg
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3.00I think it's plausible that fusion drives will emerge in the 2030s, and a crewed mission will depart for pluto before 2040. It's likely that such a trip would take much less than a year.
@MalachiteEagle like it's definitely a stretch and not the most likely timeline, but I think it's within the set of plausible futures, especially if we get ASI around 2030
It took New Horizons nearly ten years to get to Pluto. To get a human there before sixteen years from now would require a discovery akin to the Epstein Drive or an Alcubierre Drive.
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