Will Labour form a 2 term government?
Plus
14
Ṁ30992029
44%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Labour a very likely to win the July 2024 general election. But will they win the one after that?
Resolves YES if both (1) after the July 2024 there is a Labour government, and (2) the same is true of the general election after that.
Notes:
(a) if there is a minority government, if is the party of the PM that counts
(b) if there are multiple PMs in a parliament, it is the first one who counts, with the exception that it is a hung parliament and the sitting PM lasts less than 28 days after the general election (as happened in 2010 when Brown remained PM for 5 days after the GE).
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Related questions
Related questions
What proportion of seats will Labour win in the next election for Parliament?
60% chance
If Labour wins a majority government at the 2024 election, will Keir Starmer be prime minister on 1st January 2028?
70% chance
Will the Liberal Party form the next Canadian government?
3% chance
Will the Labour Party win the next UK general election?
40% chance
Will labour keep their majority for over ten years?
31% chance
Will Keir Starmer have a full term as Prime Minister?
56% chance
Will the Scottish Labour Party be the second largest party in Holyrood after the next election?
32% chance
Will Labor win the 2025 Australian federal election?
49% chance
Will the next female Prime Minister of the UK be from the Labour party?
60% chance
How many seats will the UK Labour Party win at the next general election?