Will Misskey Significantly Gain on Mastodon by end of 2024?
Will Misskey Significantly Gain on Mastodon by end of 2024?
Basic
3
Ṁ15Jan 1
44%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
At the time of creating this market, the ratio of Miskey/Mastodon
= (1,496,130)/(9,039,016) = 0.166
According to:
Will the Miskey/Mastodon ratio increase by a factor of 1.3.
Resolves yes, if ratio above 0.216
.
.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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@duck_master Previous data source seems to be down. Should I switch it to this? https://fedidb.org/ I believe the metric was supposed to be Lemmy vs. Mastodon, not Miskey, based upon the new database having a much higher number of Lemmy users, but I'm not sure.
@PatrickDelaney My mistake, Miskey does indeed have the higher number of users, so the description appears to be wrong. I will update that. What are your thoughts on updating the source? Otherwise it seems I may need to resolve this as N/A.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
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