Will the Cascadia subduction zone experience a Megathrust earthquake before 2050?
Basic
9
Ṁ171
2050
37%
chance

The geological record reveals that "great earthquakes" (those with moment magnitude 8 or higher) occur in the Cascadia subduction zone about every 500 years on average, often accompanied by tsunamis. There is evidence of at least 13 events at intervals from about 300 to 900 years with an average of 570–590 years.[15] Recent findings conclude that the Cascadia subduction zone is more complex and volatile than previously believed.[18] In 2010, geologists predicted a 37% chance of an M8.2+ event within 50 years, and a 10% to 15% chance that the entire Cascadia subduction zone will rupture with an M9+ event within the same time frame.[19][20]

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Wow, I was just reading about this and wondered if there was a market. It's crazy that there's like 1% chance a year of a tsunami in the US and no one talks about. I would hope leaders there are competent and inform people regularly to make sure to have an evacuation plan, but people are not competent and a lot will die because of it. No one should die from a tsunami in 2024 with the warning systems we have but they will and everyone will say "a tsunami in the US? Who knew that could've even happened here? It's not our fault we weren't prepared, it was just so unexpected"

Insurance (not that Mana will matter to me if the Big One hits, but still...)

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