Polling averages will be based on FiveThirtyEight as of election day.
Where there are quotation marks in the answers, I am referring to media / politics twitter dominant narratives. Determined by a clear majority of the narrative. If unclear, then (1st) Nate Silver's take, then (2nd) my take (if I'm >75% confident). Real close calls go 50% or N/A. I won't bet on these.
1,000
3.00Hi @traders
Resolving this in the next day; votes are nice and tallied, narratives played out.
Easy ones:
Averages "underestimate" Trump -> Yes, Harris -> No [Silver: "Polls consistently underestimated Trump"
Georgia is the best polled swing state -> Yes [GA margin 1.4 off, WI and PA 1.9 off, based on 538]
At least 1 battleground margin off by >5 -> No [most is AZ at 3.4]
National margin spot on -> No [off by 2.7]
2022 repeat -> No
Any non-swing vote wrong way -> No
Slightly more contentious ones:
*"End of polling narrative" -> 50% [version I saw was - betting markets are better. Silver says public sentiment now sees polls "as fake news." Wasn't the grand slam obvious version of the narrative, though.]
*Times/Siena "highly accurate" -> No [Worse than the polling averages in their last swing states poll. High accuracy in some areas, e.g. NYC and national, doesn't offset, and a narrative of their success definitely did not exist]
*"2016 repeat" -> No [Silver "polling did not experience much of a miss and had a reasonable year"]
Based on this (from Silver Bulletin), Georgia is the most accurate, none were off by 5+.
Other averages could differ.
To be clear, this should resolve YES iff any of the following jurisdictions votes for the given party:
Republican: anywhere in New England except ME-2, plus NY, NJ, DE, MD, DC, VA, IL, MN, NE-2, NM, CO, CA, OR, WA, HI;
Democratic: SC, FL, AL, MS, TN, KY, WV, OH, IN, IA, MO, AR, LA, TX, OK, KS, NE except the second district, SD, ND, MT, ID, WY, UT, AK.
In other words, the result in the following states does not affect this question: PA, MI, WI, NC, GA, AZ, NV.