Will the Percentage of the US Population (Age >= 13) that is Trans Increase in the Next Williams Center Report?
Will the Percentage of the US Population (Age >= 13) that is Trans Increase in the Next Williams Center Report?
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In 2022, the Williams Center released a report about the number of people who identified as Trans in the United States. Using data from the CDC's Behavior Risk Factor Surveillance Survey, they concluded that .6% of the US population aged greater than 12 identified as transgender.
I will resolve this market yes if the next Williams Center demographic report on trans people finds that greater than .6% of the US population aged greater than 12 identified as transgender. I will resolve this market as no if the percentage is less than .6%. I will resolve this market N/A if the Williams Center never issues another report. (The last report before this one came out in 2016-2017.)
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
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