Will Scott Wiener's SB 53 become law?
Will Scott Wiener's SB 53 become law?
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In 2024, Senator Scott Wiener introduced SB-1047, which was vetoed by the governor on Sep 29.
On Jan 7 2025, he came back with what seems like an intent bill (SB 53), which might get amended into an actual bill later this year.
If that same bill, with the same number (53) becomes law by the end of this legislative session, then this question will resolve yes.
This does not resolve yes if for some reason they introduce a new bill instead of amending this one.
Marking Oct 1st 2025 as resolution date as this would be the deadline for the governor to Veto again this year. Will resolve earlier when there is the actual result.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
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