Will an AI system be reported to have independently gained unauthorized access to another computer system before 2033?
Will an AI system be reported to have independently gained unauthorized access to another computer system before 2033?
➕
Plus
40
Ṁ4066
2029
88%
chance

From https://metaculus.com/questions/16014/ai-unauthorized-access-before-2033/

The potential capabilities of artificial intelligence may radically shift our society. This could be in positive or negative ways – including extinction risk.

Because of this, it’s important to track the development of goal-oriented independent thought and action within AI systems. Actions that might not have been predicted by their human creators and that are typically seen as morally wrong are particularly interesting from a risk perspective.

Machine learning driven systems are already being used to aid human hackers in their efforts. For instance, see this list of cases, including one in 2018 where an AI controlled a bot net in a DDOS attempt that allowed a hacker access to Task Rabbit’s data for over 3 million users. However, up to now, we’ve had no reports where an AI has taken a similar action independently (ie. without human guidance).

Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S3.00


Sort by:
10mo

The title says 2033 but the market closes in 2030? Why is that?

This matches the Metaculus market’s close date. This Manifold version could be updated to end later if desired.

What is this?

What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana Ṁ and can't be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash S to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at
S1.00
→ $1.00
, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.
© Manifold Markets, Inc.Terms + Mana-only TermsPrivacyRules