Will an AI system be known to have resisted shutdown before the end of 2025?
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19%
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This question resolves YES if an AI system is known (because of good evidence) to have autonomously taken concrete steps to resist being shut down in the real world before the end of 2025. Otherwise resolves NO on 1 Jan 2026.
I will resolve this question using my best judgement.
Resolves using the same considerations as the 2024 version of this question found here:
Credit to @PeterWildeford for coming up with this question originally.
See also the 2026 version of this question:
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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