This market resolves primarily based on data from the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data's US Crisis Monitor.

https://acleddata.com/us-crisis-monitor/.

Qualitative information from the FBI/DHS's Strategic Intelligence Assessment and Data on Domestic Terrorism report for 2025 (released mid 2026) will be considered as well: https://www.dhs.gov/publication/strategic-intelligence-assessment-and-data-domestic-terrorism

Finally the Anti-Defamation League's "Murder and Extremism in the United States" report or 2025 will be considered:

https://www.adl.org/resources/report/murder-and-extremism-united-states-2024.

Combining these sources into a resolution of this question requires waiting until mid 2026 to resolve. I am attempting to make the answer to this pretty objective, but in the case of ambiguity or conflicting data from these sources I reserve the right to use my judgement. I will do my best to reach a resolution but if I feel unable to do this fairly the market will resolve to invalid.

I will not bet on this market until after the end of 2025.

EDIT: Some clarification regarding what constitutes violence for the purposes of this market. Peaceful protests will not be considered as political violence, riots will be considered, but will be weighted less that political violence which results in deaths. Example: something like the No Kings protest, which was huge but mostly peaceful, only contributes to the resolution of this question in so far as small parts devolved into violence.