Will a room-temperature, atmospheric pressure superconductor be discovered before 2040? | Manifold

Will a room-temperature, atmospheric pressure superconductor be discovered before 2040?

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18

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2039

56%

chance

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1M

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To qualify, the material must act as a superconductor above 0C and below 1,000 millibars.

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I made this thinking it would be a good date to get to 50% or so and then the "by 2024" market spiked to 50%.

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