Will USA and China be at war in the following years? (Pick all that apply)
Will USA and China be at war in the following years? (Pick all that apply)
Plus
26
Ṁ33672031
0.2%
2024
5%
2025
11%
2026
14%
2027
13%
2028
12%
2029
14%
2030
Resolves to YES if China and the USA are at war in any day of the given year, NO otherwise.
Multiple choices are absolutely allowed.
For example, a war from April 2025 to June 2027 would pay out YES for entries 2025, 2026 and 2027, no for the rest.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
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