Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the S&P 500 Index closes below 1 point on any trading day between January 1, 2025, and December 31, 2025. The closing value is determined by the official end-of-day closing price published by reputable financial sources such as Yahoo Finance or Investing.com. If the S&P 500 does not close below 1 point during this period, the market will resolve to "No."

Economists generally agree that the S&P500 is unlikely to close below 1 in 2025. As of closure on June 6 2025, the S&P500 is at about 6000 points, which is about 6000 points away from 1 -- an approximate drop of 100% would be required. Stock market crashes tend not to be this severe; for instance, the black Monday crash of 1987 saw the market drop about 23%. A drop of 100% would likely signal minor to significant economic problems, such as a temporary recession or a brief period of unemployment.